The best fireworks are those sparked in the mind and leading to action.
JARuppert - July 4, 2016
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Interesting Tool - Wall Street Journal Startup Stock Tracker
ORIGINAL POST FROM MY BLOG AT HIGHMTNVENTURES.COM
Very helpful tool from WSJ.com - The Startup Stock Tracker: http://graphics.wsj.com/tech-startup-stocks-to-watch/
Always fascinating to watch the institutional ETF / mutual fund "biggies" (ex: Fidelity ContraFund) move into the private company space. Their valuation and subsequent adjustment of startup valuation often lays bare the delta between the Wall Street and SF Bay business models and stories.
The truth may rest somewhere in the middle.
Three Week Report - @HighMtnVentures "G6" Trading Algorithm
Three-week live performance of the High Mountain Ventures Python-based trading algorithm "G6" versus the S&P 500 SPY Benchmark:
Algorithm: +47.8%
$SPY: -3.9%
Source: Quantopian
Conclusion: Not
A great combo: Aspen Institute & Meacham on Jefferson
A combo of two of the finest - The Aspen Institute (Ideas Festival) & John author John Meacham Thomas Jefferson:
Some favorite thoughts from the talk:
“[H]e is immortal, yet because of his flaws and his sins and his failures...he was not all that he could be...but no politician, no human being ever is. Despite his shortcomings and all the inevitable disappointments and mistakes, he left America and the world a better place than it had been when he found it.”
“That he failed to live a perfect live or deliver on the promise of the Declaration...that he has been condemned as a hypocrite...in the eyes of history are to my mind reasons engage with him...not excoriate.”
“Jefferson provided the poetry of the Revolution.”
“Jefferson was against federal power until he wielded it.”
JARuppert
On Divining Inspiration and Wisdom from Dusty Volumes” - A post on Medium
Full post can be found on Medium by clicking below:
Jefferson's "Mangled" Declaration
Some thoughts on Medium about the 4th, Jefferson and his "mangled" Declaration of Independence:
JARuppert
I see and raise you a Founder, Justice Scalia...Brief and Borrowed Thoughts on 6.26.2015
As much as I revere and study the Founders, I've learned it's largely futile to fight over Founder's "intent."
And, in the end, debate and ultimate decisions concerning the legitimacy / constitutionality of laws governing social norms and conduct often come down to a reality that is best captured by the brevity of Thomas Jefferson:
“I am not an advocate for frequent changes in laws and constitutions...but laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind.
As that becomes more developed, more enlightened, as new discoveries are made, new truths discovered and manners and opinions change, with the change of circumstances, institutions must advance also to keep pace with the times.
We might as well require a man to wear still the coat which fitted him when a boy as civilized society to remain ever under the regimen of their barbarous ancestors.”
Thank you for the warning, Mr. Justice. It is well-taken. But thank you more for the wise words, Mr. President. They are the guide to the hope and promise of America.
JARuppert
Follow 2015 Google I/O LIVE
Tune in on May 29, starting at 12PM EDT.
You can also follow Google I/O directly from Google here: https://events.google.com/io2015/
JARuppert
COMING DISRUPTION IN THE PRACTICE OF LAW
Fascinating law review article outlining the inevitable wave of disruption that is about to crash over the traditional legal service model.
“These new technologies will substantially shake up the legal profession, harming the economic prospects of many lawyers, but providing advantages to some others. Machines may actually aid two kinds of lawyers in particular. First, superstars in the profession will be more identifiable and will use technology to extend their reach. Second, lawyers who can change their practice or organization to take advantage of lower cost inputs made available by machines will be able to serve an expanding market of legal services for middle-class individuals and small businesses, meeting previously unfulfilled legal needs.”
A recommended read for anyone in legal services or those who consume them.
Also, and perhaps more importantly and usefully, it may serve as an outline for those entrepreneurial spirits that see opportunity rather than threats from such change.
Link to article here: https://www.evernote.com/shard/s190/sh/f4ef12f2-d7be-44d4-9704-cf4fdf7b1abe/2350dd8673b5815b106f30bca39df784
JARuppert
Hidden Treasure
Another fun, but unexpected, addition to my Jefferson collection / library this AM.
Four volumes from the US House of Representatives Library (see the stamp in the pic) - 1833 printing of the diplomatic correspondence of the United States of America, from the signing of the definitive treaty of peace, 10th September, 1783, to the adoption of the Constitution, March 4, 1789.
Correspondence includes many of the early founders - Jefferson, Adams, Jay...
Fascinating. They deserved a good home and a little TLC.
JARuppert - 4.26.2015
Gem from CISCO CEO John Chambers
Inspiration and my favorite quote from the $CSCO earnings conference call:
“[They are] a competitor. We’re going to view them as a competitor and we will beat them and have fun doing it. I wish I was a better person, but I’m not.”
Neither am I.
WIN
JARuppert
Inspiration
The most recent acquisition for my Jefferson library - 1787 legal document from a civil case signed by Aaron Burr as counsel.
13 years later, Burr would be Jefferson's first Vice President. Four years after that, Burr would kill Alexander Hamilton in a duel. 20 years after this document was signed, Burr would be charged with treason for allegedly attempting to lead the secession of the Louisiana Territory from the United States (from Blennerhassett Island outside of Marietta, OH).
I focused countless hours on Burr as part of a writing project in law school and during my early legal career (my unfinished book). It's inspiration anew to have this in hand.
JARuppert - 12.29.2014
Internet as Public Utility? Bad Policy.
Definitely can't say it better than this HBR editorial: https://hbr.org/2014/11/why-the-public-utility-model-is-the-wrong-approach-for-internet-regulation
I support Net Neutrality, but I oppose those proposals that rely upon classification of the internet as a public utility, and upon government owning and operating the net in the manner of our long-neglected power, water and transportation systems. That's just a recipe for delay, neglect and death of commercial incentive.
Other progressives feel the same way - check out the Progressive Policy Institute's recent report, Outdated Regulations Will Make Consumers Pay More for Broadband: http://www.progressivepolicy.org/issues/communications/outdated-regulations-will-make-consumers-pay-broadband/
Once again, this is policy that should not be fought / won with sound bites.
Our economic future depends on wise choices - and sometimes the decision to do NOTHING.
Jeffrey Ruppert
Unsolicited Opinion of the Week: Thankful for Fracking and Fortress America
I'm apparently very opinionated these days.
It's post-Thanksgiving, but today I'm somewhat thankful for the fracking industry, which is partially responsible for sub-$70 per barrel oil - which should break the spines of oil revenue dependent and repressive states Russia, Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela.
According to the IMF, Iran needs $136; Venezuela and Nigeria $120; Russia can manage at $101 a barrel.
As noted in Bloomberg today:
“If the governments aren’t able to spend to keep the kids off the streets they will go back to the streets, and we could start to see political disruption and upheaval.”
We may see a little instability, but long term, it is worth it.
There may be some disruption in the US among the smaller or highly-leveraged US oil producers, but we can still sustain at this level (just pockets of slowing oil job growth, and so long as the corporate bond market doesn't collapse).
Moreover, as a believer and heavy investor in alternative energy, I don't necessarily see fracking and low oil prices as the enemy. Alternative energy WILL PLAY an ever-increasing part of our energy future - wind and solar price parity is here (and better when comparing carbon costs). It's inevitable - attitudes are changing (along with the climate) and the financial models are in place.
Plus, who doesn't like the sound of an energy-independent USA? Fortress America.
Finally, after years of income stagnation for the middle class, its good to see working families get a break SOMEWHERE.
Inspiration here: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-11-30/oil-at-40-possible-as-market-transforms-caracas-to-iran
JARuppert
The Perils of GroupThink in Policy and Politics
My RANT for the day / week -
Enjoying a little personal reading and came across this paragraph.
Insert "policy or politics" for the words "investment(s)" or "investing" in the paragraphs below and you get a quick overview of much of what I wholeheartedly believe has gone wrong with the progressive infrastructure / Democratic Party in Ohio - the quashing of fresh ideas by tired groupthink:
“Group decisions about investments were all too often compromises, the worst kind of decision-making in investing when interpersonal accommodation muddles creative thinking, rational decisions, and decisive action; and trying to forge a consensus from competing, even conflicting, differences of opinion resulted in social and mental exhaustion.
Cross-sterilization was more likely than cross-fertilization of insights and ideas. This is particularly harmful in investing where the best ideas are often tentative and “soft-shelled” at their earliest, and potentially most profitable, stage.
If investing is all about creativity and making unusual, unconventional, and even unpopular decisions, great investment decisions are best made by individuals taking direct responsibility for the results of their own acts.”
J A Ruppert
@jaruppert
Re: NY Times - Welcome to the Failure Age
My RANT for the day:
If ever there was an article that summed up why my party - the Democratic Party - needed to break from the tired dogmas of the past, it is this amazing article from the NYT.
We are aren't just rushing into a new economic age - we are already there. It's an age where the INDIVIDUAL needs to be empowered to adapt and innovate, as they will become increasingly become more responsible for their own economic welfare, and less reliant on any one or set of employers or institutions. The social safety net will need to focus less on guarantees and more on flexibility to allow workers to achieve.
This transition won't be fun. As noted below, it will be terrifying. There will be winners and losers. But we can't stop it. We can't slow it down. If we try, we all lose.
A relevant excerpt from the article:
“An age of constant invention naturally begets one of constant failure. The life span of an innovation, in fact, has never been shorter. [...]. By the 20th century, it could be measured in decades. Today, it is best measured in years and, for some products, even less [...]
The closure of the failure loop has sent uncomfortable ripples through the economy. When a product or company is no longer valued in the marketplace, there are typically thousands of workers whose own market value diminishes, too. Our breakneck pace of innovation can be seen in stock-market volatility and other boardroom metrics, but it can also be measured in unemployment checks, in divorces and involuntary moves and in promising careers turned stagnant. Every derelict product that makes its way into Weird Stuff exists as part of a massive ecosystem of human lives — of engineers and manufacturers; sales people and marketing departments; logistics planners and truck drivers — that has shared in this process of failure.
Innovation is, after all, terrifying. Right now we’re going through changes that rip away the core logic of our economy. Will there be enough jobs to go around? Will they pay a living wage? Terror, however, can also be helpful. The only way to harness this new age of failure is to learn how to bounce back from disaster and create the societal institutions that help us do so. The real question is whether we’re up for the challenge.”
**NOTE**
As always, my rants are my own, and don't reflect the views of my clients and or associates!
Jeff Ruppert
11.14.2014
Excellent Reminder: The Hidden Benefits of the "Flyover" States
Nice LinkedIn post reminding us of the oft-forgotten benefits of "flyover" states like Ohio, and why it makes sense to call them home in every sense of the word:
“When I talked to people who live on the coasts about the rent for our office space, they gasp. I’m not joking, in two instances there was a literal jaw drop and audible gasp. Northeast Ohio has one of the lowest costs of living in the US, and that definitely translates to office space as well. We occupy a 5000 sq ft office in downtown Akron, a mix of industrial space and finished office space - which is walking distance to all the downtown restaurants, bars and events. A hiking / biking trail next to our office leads into a National Park 5 miles away. And our monthly rent is less than one third that of a 700 sq ft studio apartment in the Bay Area. We could literally afford 15 thousand square feet of office space for what one person in San Francisco pays to live in a tiny apartment.
Labor rates are lower here as well, but even so our assembly techs are able to make a salary that affords them better housing here than degreed engineers can afford in the Valley.”
Read the whole article: Why our Tech Startup is Based in Akron, Ohio.
Jeff Ruppert
Excellent Read from A16Z - "Why the Structural Changes to the VC Industry Matter"
Succinct, precise recitation of the changes that are not only affecting the venture capital world, but the startup ecosystem in general.
Moreover, I have not come across a better concise summary of the disruption / reorganization taking place in large segments of our traditional economy, particularly services and retail:
“[A] ‘death of the middle’ occurs over time as service industries bifurcate into a smaller number of large, fully integrated, full-service institutions on one end and a larger number of smaller, niche-oriented institutions (with a focus on stage, industry, or specialized skillset) on the other.
Look no further than investment banks, law firms, accounting firms, advertising agencies, buyout firms, talent agencies, and recruiting firms to see how this phenomenon has played out in mature services-based business. Interestingly, we are witnessing this right now in a non-services business as well: the U.S. retail market. Long-dominant department stores such as J.C. Penney and Sears are giving way to big-box retailers and etailers (Amazon, Best Buy, Target) at the large end complemented by large numbers of specialty, boutique stores at the smaller end. [Though in retail, betting “narrow” can be big as the internet allows companies to better segment and address previously unaddressed markets.]”
Definitely worth a read and some reflection on your strategies - startup, growth and investing.
Full article here.
by Jeffrey Ruppert