I'm apparently very opinionated these days.
It's post-Thanksgiving, but today I'm somewhat thankful for the fracking industry, which is partially responsible for sub-$70 per barrel oil - which should break the spines of oil revenue dependent and repressive states Russia, Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela.
According to the IMF, Iran needs $136; Venezuela and Nigeria $120; Russia can manage at $101 a barrel.
As noted in Bloomberg today:
“If the governments aren’t able to spend to keep the kids off the streets they will go back to the streets, and we could start to see political disruption and upheaval.”
We may see a little instability, but long term, it is worth it.
There may be some disruption in the US among the smaller or highly-leveraged US oil producers, but we can still sustain at this level (just pockets of slowing oil job growth, and so long as the corporate bond market doesn't collapse).
Moreover, as a believer and heavy investor in alternative energy, I don't necessarily see fracking and low oil prices as the enemy. Alternative energy WILL PLAY an ever-increasing part of our energy future - wind and solar price parity is here (and better when comparing carbon costs). It's inevitable - attitudes are changing (along with the climate) and the financial models are in place.
Plus, who doesn't like the sound of an energy-independent USA? Fortress America.
Finally, after years of income stagnation for the middle class, its good to see working families get a break SOMEWHERE.
Inspiration here: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-11-30/oil-at-40-possible-as-market-transforms-caracas-to-iran
JARuppert